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MAY 19,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:15 P.M. ET:  

SAFER DEAD – Morley Safer, one of the CBS mainstays of "Sixty Minutes," is dead at 84.  Safer will be remembered as a skillful, influential broadcast journalist of uncommon ability with the English language.  Born in Canada, he maintained dual Canadian-American citizenship.  He will also be remembered as one of the broadcast journalists whose reports turned Americans against the Vietnam War.  A full account of the journalism of that war has yet to be done, which has left an open wound in American society, especially among veterans.

GREAT MOMENTS IN EDUCATION – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   An award-winning Brooklyn English teacher’s decision to provide each of his students with a copy of the Mary Shelley classic “Frankenstein” has thrust him into a real-life horror story.  Todd Friedman, a 29-year public-school veteran who teaches at Midwood High School, was put on administrative duty — and faces possible termination — after the city Department of Education slapped him with disciplinary charges.  His crime: He personally ordered 102 paperback copies of the novel from a publisher last September for his Advanced Placement students.  If only he had just been incompetent, all would have been okay.  Why did he have to commit the crime of dedication to his students?  And why order something by Mary Shelley.  Had he ordered something by Malcolm X he would have gotten a commendation.

CLINTON LEADS IN N.J. – FROM THE HILL:   Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton leads rival Bernie Sanders by 14 points in New Jersey, a poll released Thursday found.  And both Democrats have an edge in the Garden State over presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.  Clinton takes 54 percent support among likely voters in New Jersey's Democratic primary, with Sanders at 40 percent.  In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton leads Trump, 45 percent to 38 percent. Sanders holds a slightly larger lead over Trump, 49 percent to 37 percent.  In the Clinton-Trump match-up, Trump leads among men, 46 percent to 36 percent, but Clinton leads among women, 53 percent to 32 percent.  The New Jersey primary is in less than three weeks.  New Jersey votes the same day California does, on the last major primary day.  After September 7th only the District of Columbia votes.  New Jersey will, if the trend continues, be important to Hillary finally driving a stake into Bernie's campaign.  As for the Hillary-Trump matchup,  Hillary has cause to worry.  A seven-point lead in a heavily Democratic state is nothing to write home about. 

May 19, 2016       Permalink

LEFTIST SCRIBES TURN OFF THE BERN – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:  Common sense may be getting a slight boost on the political left, especially after last weekend's brawl at the Nevada Democratic convention, courtesy of Bernie's zealous supporters.  From The Hill: 

Bernie Sanders is suddenly facing a barrage of criticism from liberal commentators.

As the fallout from last weekend’s Nevada Democratic convention spreads, sharply critical pieces about the White House hopeful and his campaign have appeared in progressive outlets such as Mother Jones, Talking Points Memo and Daily Kos within the past 48 hours.

The Sanders campaign has also taken hits from progressive CNN contributor Sally Kohn, who endorsed the Vermont senator from the stage at a massive rally in New York City just before the Empire State’s April primary.

Kohn wrote an article published Wednesday for Time magazine that was headlined, “I felt the Bern but the Bros are extinguishing the flames.”

The fact that the criticism is coming from left-leaning sources makes it more difficult for Sanders supporters to rebut it.

Meanwhile, Democrats outside Sanders’s orbit argue the jabs show that even influential writers on the left — who tend to take more progressive positions than Democratic leaders in Washington — are concluding that the senator is hurting the party.

“Progressive thought-leaders were early validators for Bernie Sanders’s candidacy, helping him define himself as a credible candidate for president,” said Democratic strategist Evan Stavisky.

“However, as it becomes clear to anyone who can do basic math that Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee ... people who live in the real world see that the time has come for Bernie Sanders to say he did the best he could. Ultimately the math simply isn’t there for it to be viable.”

Some of the flak Sanders has faced has been unusually personal in nature, which is particularly striking given the leftward lean of many of the outlets involved.

“The one thing I do keep wondering about is what happened to Bernie Sanders,” writer Kevin Drum opined in Mother Jones. “Before this campaign, he was a gadfly, he was a critic of the system, and he was a man of strong principles. He still is, but he’s also obviously very, very bitter. I wonder if all this was worth it for him?”

COMMENT:  Bernie shows no signs of turning it off.  He seems to want to be a star at Hillary's convention, and to influence every aspect of it.  Maybe we'll even see Karl Marx's picture on the cover of the Democratic platform.  But he and his supporters are certainly splitting the party.

May 19, 2016       Permalink

REMARKABLE POLL RESULTS – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  Donald Trump has gone ahead of Hillary Clinton in the latest Fox News poll.  From Fox: 

Donald Trump tops Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, according to a new Fox News Poll that also finds majorities of voters feel both frontrunners lack strong moral values and will say anything to get elected.

Trump has a 45-42 percent edge over Clinton, if the presidential election were held today. That’s within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Last month, Clinton was up by 48-41 percent (April 2016).

Clinton is ahead by 14 points among women (50-36 percent). Yet Trump leads by a larger 22 points among men (55-33 percent).

He also tops Clinton by 37 points (61-24 percent) among whites without a college degree (working-class whites).

Overall, Trump is preferred by 24 points among whites (55-31 percent). He’s even ahead by nine among white women (47-38 percent).

And...

Clinton and Trump have made quite an impression so far. Overall, voters feel the candidates lack honesty, empathy, and strong moral values, and that they’ll say anything to win.

Clinton has a net negative honesty rating of -35 points. That’s because a new low 31 percent say she’s honest, while a record 66 percent say she isn’t.

Trump does better on this measure, although he is still underwater by 17 points: 40 percent think he’s honest and 57 percent say he’s not.

COMMENT:  What a comment on the current state of our political system.  The American people will apparently vote for the candidate they find least offensive.  No one to cheer for.

May 19, 2016       Permalink

TERROR? – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  An Egyptian airliner en route from Paris to Cairo has gone down in the Mediterranean.  Terror is seriously suspected.  From CNN:

(CNN) EgyptAir Flight 804 vanished from radar on its way from Paris to Cairo with 66 people aboard, the airline said Thursday.

The plane was flying at 37,000 feet when it lost contact overnight above the Mediterranean Sea, the airline tweeted. French President Francois Hollande said he was told the flight crashed, but Egyptian Civil Aviation Minister Sharif Fathi said he preferred to classify the flight as missing.

"We do not deny there is a possibility of terrorism or deny the possibility of technical fault," Fathi said at a Cairo news conference. "I will continue to use the term missing plane until we find any debris."

For now, finding the airplane and any possible survivors is the priority, authorities said.
Somber relatives gathered in Cairo and Paris airports, seeking word on their loved ones. They were taken to special centers at both airports, where translators and psychiatric support awaited. In Cairo's airport, dozens of relatives paced anxiously in a building set aside for families. Some shouted at photographers taking pictures of them, while others berated officials over the perceived lack of information.

COMMENT:  There is later information.  There are now some reports of debris sightings, but they are unverified.  CNN commentators this morning focused on terror as the likely cause.  There were no distress calls from the cockpit, and the cockpit did not answer repeated calls when radar detected the aircraft acting erratically.

If terror, this would be the third major attack in recent months with a Paris link.  We'll follow the story.

May 19,  2016     Permalink

MAY 18,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

MADNESS IN LIBERAL NEW YORK – FROM THE COLLEGE FIX:   Almost certainly unbeknownst to the average New Yorker – a demographic not known for overweening politeness (I know, I married one) – the New York City Commission on Human Rights is demanding that employers, landlords, professionals and “all businesses” (in Volokh’s reading) ask people their preferred gender pronoun from their first interaction.  The “legal guidance” in part:  a. Intentional or repeated refusal to use an individual’s preferred name, pronoun or title. For example, repeatedly calling a transgender woman “him” or “Mr.” after she has made clear which pronouns and title she uses …Covered entities may avoid violations of the NYCHRL by creating a policy of asking everyone what their preferred gender pronoun is so that no individual is singled out for such questions and by updating their systems to allow all individuals to self-identify their names and genders. They should not limit the options for identification to male and female only.  This will of course lower the rising crime rate and improve reading in the public schools.

NO APPLAUSE FOR THE ECONOMY – FROM CNBC:   Goldman Sachs has downgraded its outlook on equities to "neutral" over the next 12 months, saying there's no particular reason to own them.  "Until we see sustained signals of growth recovery, we do not feel comfortable taking equity risk, particularly as valuations are near peak levels," Goldman said in a note Tuesday.  Goldman downgraded Europe and Japan equities to "neutral" over a 12-month view, while upgrading U.S. equities to "neutral."  The negative economic signs are coming in every day.  This helps Trump and hurts Hillary, who must at least pay lip service to the economic genius of Barack Obama. 

OUR NEW "MODERATE" FRIEND – FROM ALGEMEINER:    Iranian police have arrested eight people in a new crackdown on models who post images of themselves online without their hair covered, state media reported Monday, part of a larger cultural struggle in the Islamic Republic over the country’s future.  The arrests follow the detentions of artists, poets, journalists and activists as moderate President Hassan Rouhani’s administration secured a landmark nuclear deal with world powers.  Nothing to see, nothing to see.  The nuclear deal is part of Obama's legacy, and what could be more important?

May 18,  2016     Permalink

TRUMP'S NUMBERS UP – AT 11:48 A.M. ET:  With the Democratic Party showing serious internal strains, poll numbers for Donald Trump are improving.  From The Hill: 

Donald Trump appears to be making rapid progress in unifying Republican voters behind his presidential bid even as Democratic discord between backers of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders reaches new highs.

An NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll released Tuesday morning showed Trump and Clinton performing at exactly the same level within their respective parties. Each commanded 87 percent support.

The poll also suggested that hopes among Democrats of an easy win over Trump are misplaced. Tuesday’s poll had Clinton with an edge of just 3 points in a hypothetical match-up: The former secretary of State led Trump 48 percent to 45 percent.

The numbers track close to polls near this point in the 2012 presidential election.

A Gallup poll conducted in March 2012, for example, saw President Obama winning the allegiance of the same proportion of Democrats as Clinton is now: 87 percent.

Trump, for his part, may be outperforming Mitt Romney, who took 84 percent support among Republicans in the March 2012 poll.

To be sure, it’s early. Polling numbers at this point in an election cycle can be significantly out of line with the results in November.

But there are warning signs for Clinton, nonetheless.

While Romney, the Bush family and a few GOP officeholders are keeping a distance from Trump, the real estate mogul does not appear to have a huge disadvantage in seeking to unify Republican voters. That means Clinton will need to stoke enthusiasm among all parts of the Democratic base if she becomes the nominee.

COMMENT:  It's going to be a bitter campaign.  Trump, though, is doing something Romney never did – fighting back against a biased press.  That in itself may be a major story in the months ahead, as the usual suspects among journalists line up behind Hillary.

May 18, 2016       Permalink

MORE ECONOMIC WOBBLING – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:   Many recent economic signs are troubling.  Some more disturbing news has come in.  This could have a profound effect on the election if it continues.  From AP:

Target's first-quarter profit easily beat Wall Street expectations, but slowing sales at the Minneapolis retailer and across much of the retail sector is creating a lot of unease.

Target's weak store sales and its expectations for this quarter, released Wednesday, pushed shares down 9 percent in morning trading. Shares of almost every retailer followed suit in what is shaping up to be a miserable year.

Target earned $632 million, or $1.05 per share, for the three months ended April 30. That compares with $635 million, or 98 cents per share, a year ago.

Stripping out one-time items, earnings were $1.29 per share, which was much better than the $1.19 per share projected on Wall Street, according to a FactSet survey.

But revenue slipped to $16.2 billion from $17.12 billion, which was shy of expectations.

Sales at stores opened at least a year rose 1.2 percent, but that's below the increase of 1.6 percent that was expected. Industry analysts watch this figure closely when determining a retailer's health because removes the volatility of stores recently opened or closed.

Before Target, major department stores like Macy's Inc., J.C. Penney Co. and Kohl's Corp. all posted weak first-quarter sales with pressure rising from off-priced stores like T.J. Maxx and also Amazon.com.

COMMENT:  The employment picture is also wobbly.  Hillary, not always the swiftest candidate, said a few days ago that she'd appoint her husband to "revitalize" the economy.  Obama must have loved that.  He's been telling we peasants that the economy is booming.  The Dems had better get on the same page.

May 18, 2016       Permalink

SCARY – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  Yesterday's Democratic primaries were kind of a wash.  Hillary managed a small victory in Kentucky and Sanders won Oregon, but the delegates are given out proportionally, so Sanders gained maybe a tiny number of seats.  Bottom line, Hillary is within 100 delegate votes of the nomination. 

The scary side here is that Bernie Sanders is becoming increasingly strident and threatening, and some of his comrades, uh, I mean supporters, are out of control.  From an editorial in the Sacramento Bee: 

A lot of Democrats don’t want to admit it, but Donald Trump isn’t the only presidential candidate playing with fire and recklessly courting an angry mob.

For the latest round of curse-word hurling, chair throwing, social-media stalking and conspiracy-theory swapping, look no further than the supporters of Bernie Sanders.

Over the weekend, dozens of Sanders devotees lost their minds after the Nevada Democratic Party, meeting for its convention in Las Vegas, awarded a majority of delegates to front-runner Hillary Clinton.

Convinced that the establishment had rigged the rules and that Sanders delegates had been excluded for unfair reasons, they booed and traded barbs with people on stage, including Clinton surrogate and keynote speaker U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer.

The convention ended abruptly, descending into chaos that was captured for the world to relive on Facebook and YouTube.

Death threats and vandalism followed, prompting Nevada Democratic Party offices to close on Monday and its chairwoman, Roberta Lange, to release some downright disgusting voicemails and text messages she had received from Sanders supporters. She also reported threats against her grandchildren.

The episode had the reek of Trump rallies, where threats, insults and sucker punches to defend the presumptive Republican nominee have been common. Yet looking back at the hundreds of Sanders supporters who descended on a Clinton rally in East Los Angeles earlier this month to intimidate her supporters, making one little girl cry, it now seems inevitable that the same kind of violent eruption would afflict those “feeling the Bern.”

That’s a scary prospect for a divided political party that is going to need to rediscover its united front in time for the November election. Like the Republicans whose unity was shredded by Trump’s rise, the Democrats now face the prospect of an internal revolt.

COMMENT:  The disruptions in the Democratic Party are more serious.  They are coming from the fringe left, which has a history of violence.  Our eagle-eyed reporters have not yet figured out that Bernie Sanders appeals to the same kind of people who wanted the United States to lose in Vietnam, and even in the war on terror.

May 18,  2016     Permalink